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Technical chart analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price and volume behavior of the market or instrument. Technical analysts, sometimes called “chartists”, may employ models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations, such as the relative strength index, moving averages, regressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, through recognition of chart patterns.

Technical analysis stands in distinction to fundamental analysis. Technical Chart Analysis “ignores” the actual nature of the company, market, currency or commodity and is based solely on “the charts,” that is to say price and volume information, whereas fundamental analysis does look at the actual facts of the company, market, currency or commodity. For example, any large brokerage, trading group, or financial institution will typically have both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team.

Technical chart analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals, and is very often used by active day traders, market makers, and pit traders. In the 1960s and 1970s it was widely discredited by academic mathematics. In a recent review, Irwin and Park reported that 56 of 95 modern studies found it produces positive results, but noted that many of the positive results were rendered dubious by issues such as data snooping so that the evidence in support of technical chart analysis was inconclusive; it is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[3] Academics such as Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is inconsistent with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis. Users hold that even if technical analysis cannot predict the future, it helps to identify trading opportunities.

In the foreign exchange markets, its use may be more widespread than fundamental analysis. While some isolated studies have indicated that technical chart trading rules might lead to consistent returns in the period prior to 1987,most academic work has focused on the nature of the anomalous position of the foreign exchange market. It is speculated that this anomaly is due to central bank intervention. Recent research suggests that combining various trading signals into a Combined Signal Approach may be able to increase profitability and reduce dependence on any single rule.
 

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This article is the topic of Episode 5 of “The Sniffer Guy” podcast series available through iTunes.

INTRODUCTION:

Application & Network Performance Analysis is a team sport. Rarely are all the required skills in one skull. Perhaps it is best understood once you think in terms of functions and skill-sets within a Troubleshooting process. In order to be able to handle ANYTHING that comes along, you will need team members with high level skills in Enterprise Applications–Operating Systems–Databases–Server Issues and a detailed understanding of Protocols and Packet-Level transactions. But, to expect one or two people to have detailed knowledge of all these areas is unrealistic.

The Senior Network and Application Performance Analyst (NAPA)Â? will need to be able to communicate with all these individuals, teams and managers. Communication & interviewing abilities are mandatory. If, even by some chance, you have the world’s best troubleshooter–what if they leave? This Team approach is practical and stable.

THE 7 PRIMARY TEAM ROLES:

Network & Application Performance Analyst (NAPA)Â? - Team Manager & Technical Team Lead. This person needs to understand all the various technical issues and be able to discuss them and ask the right questions of the individual experts. They are the hub of the team’s wheel. The NAPA must learn all the Client’s goals - Technical - Political - Management - Budgetary and then is able to scale the team accordingly.

Enterprise Application Specialist (EAS) - Able to map Application flow from functional & transactional basis. Understands Database interactions - Multi-Tiered Architecture - Web Servers.

Protocol Analyst - Packet-Sniffer Guru. Understands Network Protocols - Topology Framing - Troubleshooting from the Packet Level. This individual will be capturing trace files and analyzing the traffic at the protocol and packet-level.

Network Engineer - Familiar with wide variety of vendors i.e. Cisco–Foundry– Nortel–Troubleshooting Layers 1-3. If this team member is part of an in-house team, they need only be up to date on the manufacture’s equipment in place within the organization. However, if your team is a consulting team…this individual has to have experience with a wide range of manufactures.

Operating Systems Specialist - UNIX & Windows, Other…

Project Manager - Maintains Task List - Gant Chart - Reports to Client’s Management

Technical Writer - Creates deliverable documentation showing work & resolutions provided by Network Application Performance Analysis Team. This person does not need to have a solid technical understanding but must be able to follow the gist of it when interviewing the technical team in order to “translate” the information into a document that is understandable to both a technical and NON-technical reader.

Network & Application performance Analysis troubleshooting doesn’t require separate people in each role - single individuals can perform multiple roles. The Senior NAPA may be able to perform all roles–at a high level. However, the Client’s Subject Matter Experts (SME) will still be required. Consider them a guest member of the team.

FREQUENT ROLE COMBINATIONS:

Project Manager–Technical Writer

Network & Application performance Analysis — Protocol Analysis

Enterprise Application Specialist — Operating System Specialist

INTIAL STEPS:

1) NAPA meets with Client Management - determines goals.

2) EAS meets with Application Subject Matter Experts (SME) - begins to map out the Interpath.

3) NAPA gathers all applicable documentation - begins environmental overview.

4) NAPA- EAS determine test goals.

5) NAPA- EAS - Client SME design test plan - select test transactions.

6) NAPA- Network Engineer - Client Network SME.

7) Map out Interpath within Network Infrastructure.

Plan how to place Sniffer, Ethereal - WireShark. Mirrors (SPANs) - Taps - Host Based - Wire Speed, etc.

9) Implement plan & deploy tools.

10) Protocol Analyst - NAPA executes selected Application Transaction for performance analysis - captures appropriate trace files - log User experience.

11) Protocol Analyst performs analysis of trace files & begins Documentation.

12) Theories are developed - Test Plan modified - second round of analysis testing (where needed).

Having a Champion within Client’s organization is critical. Organization’s staff members are not accountable to The NAPA Team - does not have to provide information or perform tasks. Will not do so when busy - but always busy! A Champion will help clear the path of internal escalation.

Barry Koplowitz
http://www.articlesbase.com/computers-articles/the-application–309270.html

Futures trading is the investment style of buying or selling futures contracts. Futures contracts have been used to manage cash market price risk for more than one century in the world. Unlike a stock, which represents equity in a company and can be held for a long time, if not indefinitely, futures contracts have specific time period. Futures trading allows a market participant to lock in prices and margins in advance and reduces the potential for unanticipated loss.

Futures contracts trade in standardized units in a highly visible, extremely competitive, continuous open auction. In this way, futures lend themselves to widely diverse participation and efficient price discovery, giving an accurate picture of the market.

There are two basic categories of futures participants: hedgers and speculators. In general, hedgers use futures for protection against adverse future price movements in the underlying cash commodity. The rationale of hedging is based upon the demonstrated tendency of cash prices and futures values to move in tandem. Speculators are the second major group of futures players. These participants include independent floor traders and investors. Independent floor traders, also called “locals”, trade for their own accounts. Floor brokers handle trades for their personal clients or brokerage firms.

For speculators, futures trading has important advantages over other investments:

Futures are highly leveraged investments–The trader puts up a small fraction of the value of the underlying contract (usually 5%-15% and sometimes less) as margin;

Commission charges on futures trades are small compared to other investments–the investor pays them after the position is liquidated;

Most commodity markets are very broad and liquid–Transactions can be completed quickly, lowering the risk of the time delay from the decision to the execution.

Most trading objects are familiar to you–from crude oil to gold, from metal to grain, from treasury bonds to stock index.

The basic requirement for beginners on futures trading is a futures trading plan, created according to his or her financial background, trading style and trading ability and so on. The capital you should have depends solely on your trading budget. If you take futures trading as a part-time job, then investing lower amounts for small profits can be the right plan. But if you want to make futures trading for your living, then you should invest much more.

Keep in mind that futures prices are more volatile than stock prices. Remember it is margin trading and expanded more than 10 times as your normal investment. You need to ask yourself how much you can afford to lose. Be extremely honest with yourself about this, in fact, be more than honest so that you are sure to not overextend your budget.

Here are some simple tips that will help you increase your profit potential and prevent you from losing money.

1. Understanding the basics of fundamental analysis and technical analysis

When you do futures trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on the relationship of supply and demand while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.

2. Trading with the trend

No matter which futures you are trading, you have to trade with the trend. As you know, the price will be changed when the supply and the demand have been changed. If no further factors occur, the trend used to be going on. However, trading with the trend is a complex principle as it depends on the trading style. A day trader may follow hourly trends as he trade according to minute changes in prices. On the other hand a long term investor or position trader may follow weekly, monthly or even yearly trends.

3. Minimizing the losses and running the profit

Minimizing the losses means quitting the trade quickly when market is against you. As no one want to quit a trade in loss, it is the toughest decision to make.

No one trading futures will want to quite a trade providing great profits. But remember to quit a trade as soon as you feel a negative trend. Meanwhile, running futures contracts when the trend is the same as whcih you wish.

4. Managing the risk

Managing the risk is most important to beginners. It is an essential practice for you to set up a stop order before you trade to evade big loss and move your stop order to preserve profit. Keeping hands off from highly fluctuating markets and investing in mini contracts, paying attention to surprise reports, diversifying trading fields are some of the practices involved.

Always monitor national and international trends, especially pay more attention to relative contracts trends, you will make a success on futures trading. Visit SoloInvest and TradingSolutions to know more.

bing zou
http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/how-to-do-futures-trading-122314.html

An issue that plagues many retirees is how to manage retirement income in the face of the increasing cost of living. Even with moderate inflation, costs of living tend to increase over time. This can reduce the retirement income retirees can obtain from fixed income investments, even while they must meet higher expenses. Where can you find a source of retirement income that can keep of with inflation, along with your expenses?

Our suggestion: consider putting some of your money into a portfolio of large capitalization dividend-paying stocks as an income generation alternative. This retirement investment could help to provide you with a retirement income that keeps pace with the rising costs of living. For the 30 years ending 12/31/04, the stream of dividends from an investment in a basket of stocks representing the S&P 500 index generated a growing stream of income. During that same period, interest rates from CDs fell 7.42% to 1.85% (the S&P 500 is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general; it is not possible to invest directly in an index).

Data 1/1/75 through 12/31/04. Dividends based on a $10,000 investment 1/1/75 in a basket of stocks representing the S&P500 from American Funds Distributors. Interest rates from Federal Reserve year end rate on 6 month CDs. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and an analysis of a different period may have revealed different results.

Although publicly traded stock can help you to manage inflationary risks, the dividends that these stocks pay out are highly dependant upon the overall profitability of the issuing company. Therefore, you will want to strongly consider the dividend payment history of the company prior to making such a retirement investment.

A few additional things should be considered about stocks and CDs. First publicly-traded stocks tend to be suited for investors that are seeking asset appreciation and are willing to take on the additional investment risk. On the other hand, CD’s are suited for investors that are concerned about preserving their principal investment and are adverse to market risk. With this in mind, it should be remembered that CDs are FDIC insured while publicly-traded stocks are not. The values of publicly-traded stocks fluctuate in value and may result in either a gain or loss upon sale.

The retirement income from these investments is also subject to differing income tax rules. Stock dividends are generally subject to federal income tax of 15%, while CD interest is taxed as ordinary federal income tax rates, which can range anywhere from 10-35%. CDs may have an early withdrawal penalty if money is taken prior to maturity. On the other hand, the stock of most largely capitalized companies can typically be purchased and sold at any time when the market is open.

But as you can see from the chart at http://www.retirement-income.net/income_basics.html, stocks beat CDs hands down for retirement income.

Bob I. Richards
http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-articles/retirees-should-use-stocks-for-retirement-income-714846.html

A Look at Fibonacci Numbers

You may have heard the terms “Fibonacci” and “Fibonacci Numbers” — what do they mean and how are they incorporated into trading indicators?  First things first, what (more specifically, who) is Fibonacci?  Leonardo Pisano (a.k.a. Fibonacci) was a 12th-century, Italian mathematician that developed a sequence of numbers where each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.  The Fibonacci sequence is as follows:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 ..

Something interesting about these numbers, they are all roughly 1.618 times the next number.  Fibonacci’s discovery has come to be known as the Golden Ratio.  The Golden Ratio becomes three different percentages when apply Fibonacci’s findings to technical analysis:  38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% (note that other multiples can be used).

While all of this information is interesting, what does it have to do with technical analysis and trading?    You will see Fibonacci Numbers represented four different ways in technical analysis and trading:  retracements, arcs, fans, and time zones.  Let’s deal with these in order.

Fibonacci Retracements: Take a chart of your stock, then draw five lines.  The lines fall at 100% (the chart’s high), 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, and 0% (the chart’s low).  Continued analysis has found that these levels will often act as support or resistance for a stock (depending on its situation compared to the stock).  

Fibonacci Arcs: To create Fibonacci Arcs, draw a trendline from a stock’s extreme high to its extreme low on a given chart.  Then, using one of the extremes as a center point, draw three arcs positioned at the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels.  If you draw these arcs using the high point as the center, you should find levels of support at the Fibonacci Arcs.  Using the lower point as the center should help identify potential resistance levels.

Fibonacci Fans:  Again, we need to draw a trendline from the low point to the high point on a stock’s chart.  To draw the fan lines, use the leftmost point of the trendline and draw three lines from this point.  These three lines will reach points that divide the vertical distance between the trendline’s points at the key Fibonacci ratios (38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%).  Technical analysts believe that these fan lines can act as support or resistance.

Fibonacci Time Zones: These indicators are often referred to as the Fibonacci Time Series.  The zones are found by dividing a chart with vertical lines, which fall on the Fibonacci sequence (as shown earlier).  These zones are then examined to see where significant price movement takes place.

In summary, Fibonacci Numbers are more than a simple ratio or sequence of numbers when it comes to trading stocks.  They can be utilized as various indicators that may point to key support, resistance, and reversal areas.  Having been created in the 12th century, they certainly have stood the test of time.

Trade Well,
http://www.bigtrends.com

BigTrends offers a variety of Coaching Courses and DVDs about specific techniques for trading technical indicators.  For more information, please call 1-800-244-8736.

Price Headley
http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/a-look-at-fibonacci-numbers-756183.html

Microsoft Excel 2007 Upgrades from: Microsoft Excel 2000-2003 Microsoft Office 2000-2007 (any suite) Microsoft Office XP (any suite) Microsoft Works Suite 6.0-10.0 Microsoft Works Suite 2000-2006 or later Microsoft Excel 2007 is one the most powerful tool of its kind. Create spreadsheets, format them how you want, and use the data to analyze and share information for better decision-making. Excel 2007 makes it easier to develop and use charts that the professionals use. Produce Better Work The new user interface makes it easier to find the tools you want when you need them. Excel 2007 presents the appropriate commands based on the job you’re doing. Work with massive amounts of data. Excel 2007 has an increased row/column capacity of 1 million rows by 16,000 columns. Format cells and tables faster using Cell Styles and Table Styles galleries. It’s easy to create professional, dramatically good looking charts, with predefined layouts and styles or by manually formatting each component. Use effects like 3-D, soft shadowing, and anti-aliasing to help identify key data trends and create more compelling graphical summaries. View your chart how it will look in print with Page Layout View. Only in Excel 2007 can you easily add headers and footers and adjust page margins (with an immediate preview) to get true-to-life printing views. Better Spreadsheet Analysis Highlight and demonstrate notable trends with colored gradients, heat maps, data bars and icons. Excel 2007 is ideal for working with large quantities of data. Sort and filter your data as usual, or use new features like multiselect in AutoFilters, filter by color and ”quick filters”. Pivot Tables and Pivot Charts are easier than ever, just drag fields to where you want them to display. Complete support for SQL Server 2005 Analysis Services. Share More Easily, More Securely Excel Services turns your spreadsheet into HTML, so others can access, navigate, sort, filter and interact with it in a Web browser. Convert

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Edge 205 Packaging Includes: Edge® 205 Bike mount Garmin Training Center® CD A/C charger USB PC interface cable Quick reference guide Owner’s manual Take your ride to the next level with the Edge 205-Garmin’s GPS-enabled personal trainer and cycle computer. Perfect for touring and the trails, the lightweight Edge is the ultimate fitness partner. With the easy-to-use Edge 205 on your bike, you always know where you’re going and how far you’ve gone. For advanced cyclists, the Edge 305 is available with either a heart rate monitor or a wireless speed/pedaling cadence sensor to help you achieve your personal best. The Edge 205 measures speed, distance, time, calories burned, altitude, plus much more. 205 features include: Easy-to-install - no calibration required. Just snap it in the included bike mount and go High-sensitivity GPS receiver - knows your position even in tree cover and canyons, making it extremely reliable for navigation Customizable cycle computer - shows up to eight different data fields for continuous feedback Virtual Partner - lets you race a virtual competitor, making training fun Courses - lets you race against a recorded course to try to match previously set speeds at every point along the way Auto Pause ® - pauses the training timer when you slow down below a specified speed and resumes when you speed up again so you can focus on your ride Auto Lap ® - automatically triggers a lap every time you pass a specified location or travel a preset distance Garmin Training Center software - gives you the ability to create workouts, manage and download courses, and create a detailed post-ride analysis that charts your performance With its waterproof, sleek design, the Edge is the perfect companion on any bike, and attaches to either the stem or handlebars. Its rugged case frames an easy-to-read, large, backlit display that can show up to eight different data fields along with altitude and a map view.

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Vet’s Best Vita-Derm Shed & Itch Relief For Dogs (16 fl oz) A wonderful boost to overall health. Our yummy, liver-flavored liquid nutritional supplement works from the inside out. It supplies the essential ratio of Omega-6 and Omega-3 Fatty Acids to support healthy skin and a lustrous coat. Directions: Do not refrigerate. Shake well. Find your dog’s weight on the chart below. Add the suggested amount to your dog’s food daily. Start with the lowest amount and gradually increase to the highest amount. Recommended Dosage Under 15 lbs………………………………………1/4-1/2 tsp 15 - 30 lbs…………………………………………1/2-2 tsp 31 - 50 lbs……………………………………………1-3 tsp 51 - 60 lbs……………………………………………2-4 tsp Over 60 lbs………………………………………….3-6 tsp Contains: Fish Oil (Source of Omega 3), Evening Primrose Oil (Source of Omega 6), Lecithin, D-Alpha-Tocopheryl (Vitamin E), Fish Liver Oil and Liver Flavor Guaranteed Analysis per teaspoon (5 mL): Crude Fat (min.)……………………………………….95.5% Essential Fatty Acids: Linoleic Acid……………………………………………..55 mg Vitamins (min.): Vitamin A………………………………………………200 I.U. Vitamin E………………………………………………..12 I.U.

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In part I of this article we discussed the issues that lead to flattened growth. So what’s a befuddled and perplexed tech company CEO to do?

FINDING A SOLUTION

Well, the first thing I recommend is to really spend some time getting to the bottom of things. Instead of shot-gunning blame that may be misplaced, or impetuously blowing up established pillars of the business—conduct a real, objective analysis of the nature of the slowdown. I don’t suggest paralysis by analysis by any means, but do take the time to gather some data, so that your actions will be based on more than knee-jerk reactions.

Past that, it’s hard to generalize on a course of action, because the proper action will depend upon what you find in your analysis. But for the sake of discussion, let’s say that while there are a few factors that you find which could be leading to slower growth, no there isn’t a “silver bullet” reason that can be “fixed” to get the revenue curve again pointed up and to the right. Below are some general ways that I’ve found may enable you to “restart growth”. I might add that many of them are most effective if you begin them prior to actual revenue flattening:

Try marketing programs you haven’t used before
Usually when you get in a period of high growth, there is a workhorse program or two that has worked well for you, and there is a tendency to “keep doing what works”. Unfortunately, even the best conceived marketing programs eventually run out of steam. One of the keys to having consistently good outbound marketing, is too be constantly testing new ideas, placing small bets, and fine-tuning them if there is enough success to continue. As I’ve said many times before, product marketing is part art, and part science—with the art portion unfortunately upfront. You need to do a little trial and error to find a good program, and then the science kicks in, using data you’ve gathered to optimize it. But the key is to be constantly testing new ideas, in good times and bad. If you wait until your growth has already slowed, you may scramble for quite a while, trying to find an answer.

Have an internal “growth” brainstorming session
Ideally you are doing this before you fall into a revenue rut. But regardless, do bring together people in your organization, to bring out the ideas they may have to give the top line a kick start. Do hold these sessions in an open, non-threatening and non-political environment. It’s important that people are able to speak freely, and not be ridiculed, if they come up with an idea that’s “too far out of the box”. That is often where strategic breakthroughs are made. And don’t just limit these sessions to executive managers. Remember, the people at the bottom of the org chart are often the ones closest to the business, and are sometimes able to more easily spot a big opportunity that the company could capitalize on.

Hire some outside help
Consultants have a very bad name in some areas—unfortunately, sometimes with good reason. But bringing in someone with deep marketing or management expertise, with a different viewpoint than the internal management team, can sometimes be the quickest way to new approaches that will turn the ship quickly. I’d recommend staying away from folks that that have a cookbook formula, have only been consultants and not operating executives, or take too much of an academic approach. Every company, market and point in time is different, and needs to be analyzed as such. But hiring the right outside consultant or firm who is creative, analytic and “been there and done that” can have a big impact. PJM Consulting has often worked as a change agent in these situations, and increasing or restarting traction is an area of specialty.

Look at entering an adjacent market
If it’s determined that your current market space is getting saturated, one of the first things to do is to look at adjacent spaces. Preferably, look somewhere that you can leverage your current marketing, distribution and brand, but also possibly where you can apply existing company technology to a different customer’s problem. The key here is don’t go to a complete green field, that looks attractive because it’s large or growing fast, but where you have no real business competing. Again, it’s best to be taking this step in anticipation of slowing growth in your current business—rather than waiting until it happens. Getting traction in new areas can take some time.

Consider M&A to fill out your product line or distribution system
If you’ve been caught by a surprise slowdown and you need to do something quickly, a strategic acquisition can sometimes be the answer. I warn you to proceed with caution here. M&A is fraught with danger—statistics show that most acquisitions don’t work out well. You need to think it through, proceed carefully, and don’t get overly excited by the thrill of the deal chase. If done well, however, a strategic acquisition can be a real shortcut to entering an adjacent space, filling out your product line for an existing strong distribution system, or adding sales channels to your strong product offerings. This is another area where PJM Consulting has strong experience, and can offer assistance.

THINK IT THROUGH BEFORE YOU START SHOOTING

There are obviously endless other potential ways to explore, when attempting to jump out of a revenue rut. I wanted to suggest a few to stimulate your thinking—and more importantly, steer you away from some “knee-jerk” reactions, that often make your situation even worse.

What have you done in the past when you need to restart growth?

Phil Morettini
http://www.articlesbase.com/management-articles/flattening-of-the-growth-curve-part-ii-66384.html

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