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A Look at Fibonacci Numbers

You may have heard the terms “Fibonacci” and “Fibonacci Numbers” — what do they mean and how are they incorporated into trading indicators?  First things first, what (more specifically, who) is Fibonacci?  Leonardo Pisano (a.k.a. Fibonacci) was a 12th-century, Italian mathematician that developed a sequence of numbers where each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.  The Fibonacci sequence is as follows:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 ..

Something interesting about these numbers, they are all roughly 1.618 times the next number.  Fibonacci’s discovery has come to be known as the Golden Ratio.  The Golden Ratio becomes three different percentages when apply Fibonacci’s findings to technical analysis:  38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% (note that other multiples can be used).

While all of this information is interesting, what does it have to do with technical analysis and trading?    You will see Fibonacci Numbers represented four different ways in technical analysis and trading:  retracements, arcs, fans, and time zones.  Let’s deal with these in order.

Fibonacci Retracements: Take a chart of your stock, then draw five lines.  The lines fall at 100% (the chart’s high), 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, and 0% (the chart’s low).  Continued analysis has found that these levels will often act as support or resistance for a stock (depending on its situation compared to the stock).  

Fibonacci Arcs: To create Fibonacci Arcs, draw a trendline from a stock’s extreme high to its extreme low on a given chart.  Then, using one of the extremes as a center point, draw three arcs positioned at the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels.  If you draw these arcs using the high point as the center, you should find levels of support at the Fibonacci Arcs.  Using the lower point as the center should help identify potential resistance levels.

Fibonacci Fans:  Again, we need to draw a trendline from the low point to the high point on a stock’s chart.  To draw the fan lines, use the leftmost point of the trendline and draw three lines from this point.  These three lines will reach points that divide the vertical distance between the trendline’s points at the key Fibonacci ratios (38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%).  Technical analysts believe that these fan lines can act as support or resistance.

Fibonacci Time Zones: These indicators are often referred to as the Fibonacci Time Series.  The zones are found by dividing a chart with vertical lines, which fall on the Fibonacci sequence (as shown earlier).  These zones are then examined to see where significant price movement takes place.

In summary, Fibonacci Numbers are more than a simple ratio or sequence of numbers when it comes to trading stocks.  They can be utilized as various indicators that may point to key support, resistance, and reversal areas.  Having been created in the 12th century, they certainly have stood the test of time.

Trade Well,
http://www.bigtrends.com

BigTrends offers a variety of Coaching Courses and DVDs about specific techniques for trading technical indicators.  For more information, please call 1-800-244-8736.

Price Headley
http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/a-look-at-fibonacci-numbers-756183.html

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In part I of this article we discussed the issues that lead to flattened growth. So what’s a befuddled and perplexed tech company CEO to do?

FINDING A SOLUTION

Well, the first thing I recommend is to really spend some time getting to the bottom of things. Instead of shot-gunning blame that may be misplaced, or impetuously blowing up established pillars of the business—conduct a real, objective analysis of the nature of the slowdown. I don’t suggest paralysis by analysis by any means, but do take the time to gather some data, so that your actions will be based on more than knee-jerk reactions.

Past that, it’s hard to generalize on a course of action, because the proper action will depend upon what you find in your analysis. But for the sake of discussion, let’s say that while there are a few factors that you find which could be leading to slower growth, no there isn’t a “silver bullet” reason that can be “fixed” to get the revenue curve again pointed up and to the right. Below are some general ways that I’ve found may enable you to “restart growth”. I might add that many of them are most effective if you begin them prior to actual revenue flattening:

Try marketing programs you haven’t used before
Usually when you get in a period of high growth, there is a workhorse program or two that has worked well for you, and there is a tendency to “keep doing what works”. Unfortunately, even the best conceived marketing programs eventually run out of steam. One of the keys to having consistently good outbound marketing, is too be constantly testing new ideas, placing small bets, and fine-tuning them if there is enough success to continue. As I’ve said many times before, product marketing is part art, and part science—with the art portion unfortunately upfront. You need to do a little trial and error to find a good program, and then the science kicks in, using data you’ve gathered to optimize it. But the key is to be constantly testing new ideas, in good times and bad. If you wait until your growth has already slowed, you may scramble for quite a while, trying to find an answer.

Have an internal “growth” brainstorming session
Ideally you are doing this before you fall into a revenue rut. But regardless, do bring together people in your organization, to bring out the ideas they may have to give the top line a kick start. Do hold these sessions in an open, non-threatening and non-political environment. It’s important that people are able to speak freely, and not be ridiculed, if they come up with an idea that’s “too far out of the box”. That is often where strategic breakthroughs are made. And don’t just limit these sessions to executive managers. Remember, the people at the bottom of the org chart are often the ones closest to the business, and are sometimes able to more easily spot a big opportunity that the company could capitalize on.

Hire some outside help
Consultants have a very bad name in some areas—unfortunately, sometimes with good reason. But bringing in someone with deep marketing or management expertise, with a different viewpoint than the internal management team, can sometimes be the quickest way to new approaches that will turn the ship quickly. I’d recommend staying away from folks that that have a cookbook formula, have only been consultants and not operating executives, or take too much of an academic approach. Every company, market and point in time is different, and needs to be analyzed as such. But hiring the right outside consultant or firm who is creative, analytic and “been there and done that” can have a big impact. PJM Consulting has often worked as a change agent in these situations, and increasing or restarting traction is an area of specialty.

Look at entering an adjacent market
If it’s determined that your current market space is getting saturated, one of the first things to do is to look at adjacent spaces. Preferably, look somewhere that you can leverage your current marketing, distribution and brand, but also possibly where you can apply existing company technology to a different customer’s problem. The key here is don’t go to a complete green field, that looks attractive because it’s large or growing fast, but where you have no real business competing. Again, it’s best to be taking this step in anticipation of slowing growth in your current business—rather than waiting until it happens. Getting traction in new areas can take some time.

Consider M&A to fill out your product line or distribution system
If you’ve been caught by a surprise slowdown and you need to do something quickly, a strategic acquisition can sometimes be the answer. I warn you to proceed with caution here. M&A is fraught with danger—statistics show that most acquisitions don’t work out well. You need to think it through, proceed carefully, and don’t get overly excited by the thrill of the deal chase. If done well, however, a strategic acquisition can be a real shortcut to entering an adjacent space, filling out your product line for an existing strong distribution system, or adding sales channels to your strong product offerings. This is another area where PJM Consulting has strong experience, and can offer assistance.

THINK IT THROUGH BEFORE YOU START SHOOTING

There are obviously endless other potential ways to explore, when attempting to jump out of a revenue rut. I wanted to suggest a few to stimulate your thinking—and more importantly, steer you away from some “knee-jerk” reactions, that often make your situation even worse.

What have you done in the past when you need to restart growth?

Phil Morettini
http://www.articlesbase.com/management-articles/flattening-of-the-growth-curve-part-ii-66384.html

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The Bollinger Band is the closest thing to ‘The Holy Grail’ of
technical analysis there is. Especially for large cap stock
traders, it just cannot be beat for analyzing charts. Having
said that however, there is probably no other technical
indicator misused or misunderstood as often as the Bolinger Band
(BB). This article is to provide the technical analyst with the
basics needed to interpret the many faces of the BB.

Before we begin, let me explain the type of trading done at
http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com. We trade large cap
stocks, we generally hold stocks for less than two months, and
make about 3-5% on an average trade. Done over and over again
throughout the year, we have made over 50% annual returns for
the last three years.

Now lets discuss what the Bollinger Band (BB) is. In its
standard usage, the BB is derived from taking the 20 day moving
average of the stock price. And then adding and subtracting two
standard deviations of that stock price and placing a line above
the moving average and below the moving average. Now without
having to re-visit my statistics classes of some 25 years ago, I
will try to clarify a standard deviation. It is simply a
measurement of how far the price has deviated above or below the
moving average. A stock going through a particularly volatile
patch, will see its BB’s expand, and a stock going through a
calm period, will see them contract.

BB’s are available on most charting software. Yahoo has them on
their technical analysis charts, as do most other web sites that
are dedicated to technical analysis. If you are unfamiliar with
them I urge you to right now, go experiment with them, using a
few stocks and market indicators like the Dow, or Nasdaq.

If you are familiar with technical analysis, and use indicators
such as the RSI or stochastic. You know one of the unique things
about the BB’s is they are placed right on the stock charts.
They are viewed in the context of the actual price movements. In
fact, for me, they define the stock chart. Stock charts tell me
way more about future movement with the BB placed on them. I
rarely do any analysis without them, except for perhaps an
initial viewing of a stock chart I am considering for watch list
placement. BB’s therefore do not give you a number, like most
other indicators, they don’t tell you an overbought or oversold
condition. They just provide a visual, a story, of where a stock
has been. Therefor you have to interpret.

But what can be learned is crucial, to guessing what will happen
next. BB’s can help you predict price movements, like no other
tool. The trick is, to know what to look for. In other articles
I will present what I require a price pattern to look like
before I even consider it. But for this article, realize that
price patterns need to be structured, calm, heading up, down or
flat. But they can’t be erratic. Erratic price patterns are
never worth trading..

If the upper band and the lower band are not moving in unison
then the pattern is erratic. There is one exception to this
rule, and that is at the beginning of a powerful up or down
move. Remember, the bands tell you where the price will fall in
relative to the 20 day moving average. Well, if a powerful move
is underway, then the price is moving away from the average, and
the bands expand. Once the bands expand it is too late to trade
that move, but the stock is worth watching, one can climb on
board on the next pull back.

But trading the way we do on our blog ,at
http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com, that has produced greater
than 50% return three years running, we like the bands to move
in unison. That shows predictability. And predictability is
crucial in getting large returns. It is not the home run we are
looking for, just hit after hit after hit. Load the bases
repeatedly and you generate runs. OK enough baseball analogy.
Here is an example, take the chart HIG. With BB’s in place look
at the chart in early June 2005. It is just after the powerful
upward move, that occurred in May. First notice in May how the
BBs expanded, as the stock shot straight up. Then in June the
bands moved in unison. Around mid June the stock touched its 20
day moving average, then its formation started to ‘bowl’ as it
moved up. Buy it here. Once it hits a 5% profit move up a
sliding stop, and ride the price up. Several things can be
learned form this chart. The single most bullish pattern, is a
stock that has small trading day ranges, and hugs the upper
band. It rides it up between the 20 day average, and the top
band. The bands are at an upward angle, that is not too steep.
And everything moves in unison, both bands, the moving average,
and most importantly for profits, the price.

If one should know anything about the stock market, it is this.
It is ruled by emotions. Emotions are like springs, they stretch
and contract, both for only so long. BB’s measure this like no
other indicator. A stock, especially widely traded large caps,
with all the fundamental research in the world already done,
will only lie dormant for so long, and then they will move. The
move after such dormant periods will almost always be in the
direction of the overall trend. If a stock is above it’s 200 day
moving average then it is in an uptrend, and the next move will
likely be up as well.

Look at the chart CIT, with the BBs of course. See how in June
2005, the BB’s contract late in the month. While the price
touches the lower BB. See how the stock is above the 200 day
moving average. And more importantly the slope of the 200 day
moving average is upward. The stock clearly wants to move up.
The bands are ridiculously close together. Buy right here, an
oversold stock, moving upward, with narrow bands. What happens
next is the bands expand, I call it fish lips, I love fish lips.
This stock could have been bought in June sold at exhaustion as
the bands had expanded with an upper band touch. And then
re-purchased in July and done again. While fish lips provide
remarkable entry signals, they generally aren’t held as long as
the upward unison movement of HIG mentioned above.

There you have the two most crucial lessons in Bollinger Bands.
The HIG pattern I call riding the wave, and the CIT pattern I
call fish lips. Riding the wave can usually be done longer up to
two months, using stops along the way, one doesn’t even really
need to watch it, of course one can as they ca-ching in one
those safe profits. The other pattern is fish lips, they are
usually held for less than a month, and are exited upon upper
band touches, or mare exactly retreats from upper band touches.
(When the price touches the upper band and then retreats). Fish
lips that re formed out of a flat pattern can often turn into
‘riding the wave,’ and then are held longer

Ct Larsen
http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-articles/using-bollinger-bands-for-trading-large-cap-stocks-1313.html

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In forex trading, there are two primary types of forex trading strategies. One of these forex trading strategies is based on a fundamental analysis and the other is based on a technical analysis. As a forex trader you will need to integrate both of these techniques in your complete forex trading system.

The first primary type of forex trading strategies is fundamental analysis and this trading technique pertains to the economic and political conditions that may affect the currency prices. Forex traders use fundamental analysis to research information about economic policies, inflation, growth rates and unemployment rates. Traders accomplish this by using news reports about the areas where the currency they will be trading on. This information helps to provide a big picture of the economic conditions that will affect specific currencies. When dealing with fundamental analysis you will come to learn that the two more important fundamental indicators are international trade and interest rates. Other indicators will include, Durable Goods Order, Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, Purchasing Manager’s Index, and retail sales.

The second primary type of forex trading strategies is technical analysis. Technical trading actually takes into account the fundamentals. Technical analysis also factors in the greed and the fear of the people who will influence currency prices. Technical analysis looks at both inputs that make up the price, simply looking at the forex charts and lets that tell them where to execute their trading signals. When traders use technicals for plotting the entry an exit target prices into the forex market, they will supplement their findings with fundamental analysis. The upside to forex technical trading is that it’s much less time consuming and you are more likely to keep your emotions out of your trading. Technical analysis let’s you trade on reality, you will trade on the truth of the market price and not what your feelings say the market price should be.

While you will learn that both types of trading strategies are important for profitable and successful trades, you will also learn that traders tend to lean towards one or the other type more or so. When you incorporate the technical style of trading, you must be prepared to deal with mathematical concepts that are necessary to manipulate currency pricing data and when you incorporate fundamental analysis you must be ready to deal with many economic factors that will be necessary to base your trades on.

The most successful forex traders combine both fundamentals and technicals when trading. As a technical trader, you should understand what news events are being released and how they could potentially affect your trades. A good example would be if a currency appears to heading into resistance on a currency chart and one of those countries are expected to make a major news announcement, it would be good practice to stay out of the market until after the news event. Then once price has settled down, you can analyze what this data means to your bias and take the appropriate action.

Andrew Daigle
http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-articles/understanding-the-two-primary-types-of-forex-trading-722802.html